Global Warming: Is it a Real Threat to Our Survival?

It is indisputably true that human activities play an important part in virtually all natural systems on Earth. Human beings are the main catalyst of change in the environment at local and even global scale. Massive population growth and tremendous scientific and technological advancement over the past century have indeed brought about fundamental changes in the way people interact with the natural system. Our energy consumption, which is mainly derived from burning fossil fuel, has increased greatly due to the industrial revolution and other related human developments.

Preponderant of credible and leading scientists and local and international scientific organizations conclude that coal plants, automobiles and other human activities emit faster and more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the natural system can recycle. They argue that since these gases are responsible for warming our planet (earth), therefore, artificial increase in their quantity and composition could leads to radical changes in global temperature. The proponents of the theory of global warming argue that urgent remedial actions must be taken otherwise within the next few centuries; the earth’s temperature might increase radically to forbid life, as we know it.

This is how the green house effect works. It is a well-known fact that the atmosphere surrounds the earth. It consists of different layers, each containing different gases and pressures for different uses for habitability of the earth. The greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane nitrous oxide, ozone, and others--are responsible for warming our planet. The “greenhouse effect” occurs when sunlight penetrates the earth’s atmosphere (Perkins, p3). Some of the radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere, some is reflected away, and about half is absorbed by the earth’s surface (land and sea). The greenhouse gases absorb the infrared radiation from the earth and re-radiate both upwards to space and downward to earth. This process keeps the earth surface about thirty-three degrees Celsius (59 Fahrenheit degrees) warmer than it would otherwise be (U.S. Climate Action Report 2002). This process is natural and does not pretense any threat to our survival. In fact, this process makes life possible on earth.

The concern is about the excess greenhouse gases that are produced due to human activity. Most atmospheric scientists have concluded that excess greenhouse gas emission due to human activity is causing global warming at an unprecedented scale. Global warming is defined by Encyclopedia Britannica Online as follows: “An increase in global average temperature resulting from an increase in the amount of Carbon dioxide, Methane, and certain other trace gases in the atmosphere.” Carbon dioxide, which is mainly produced by burning fossil fuel (coal, oil, and natural gas), is the main concern because its production has increased rapidly over the past century.

Mark Hertsgaard reports that atmospheric composition of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has increased greatly and it is expected to increase even more rapidly during the twenty-first century. According to Hertsgaard, global average temperature has increased during the 20th century. Globally, it is very likely that 1990s was the warmest decade and 2005 was the warmest year in instrumental record, according to Sid Perkins, the author of the article “An Ounce of Prevention.” He reports that tidal gauge data show that global average sea level has risen during the past century and precipitation and rainfall has increased in some regions and reduced in others.

Bivens reports that in 1988 the United Nations commissioned an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consisting of 200 credible and leading scientists to assess, the scientific basis, possible effects, and mitigation of human induced climate change. Its third assessment report of 2001, led to negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol on environmental protection, which aims at reducing global greenhouse gas emission by 5 percent below pre-industrial revolution numbers.

According to Bivens, the IPCC, which is the main authority on global climate change, predicts severe consequences if the current trend of greenhouse gas production and emission continues without curbing. Global average temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees and the Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea ice extent are projected to decrease further by the end of the century if the current trend continues, he cites the IPCC report.

These changes might seem insignificant but when they apply to global average then smallish numbers have large significance. The difference between an ice age and an interglacial period might be only a few degrees Celsius. Not because we would be a little bit warmer but that degree of average temperature change has large consequences for things like sea level rise and possibly many other climate variables. Hertsgaard cites the U.S. Climate Action Report which reports that ‘not only is global warming real, but its consequences—heat waves, water shortages, rising sea levels, loss of beaches and marshes, more frequent and violent weather—will be punishing for Americans.’

Unlike weather, which is concern with instantaneous state of the atmosphere, climate deals with longer time scale, with averages and other statistics over space and time? It implies that the climate is more complex, multifaceted, and difficult to predict precisely. Therefore, a smallish change in one or more parts of the equation could lead to significant climate change. For example, suppose that the earth get warmer as projected. Then ice and snow cover melts and the darker substances—land and sea—are exposed. Therefore, in response to the warming, the world has become a little bit darker and hence less reflective, so it absorbs more sun light. This chain of responsive reactions would in fact lead to more global warming. It is a positive feedback, where an action leads to more actions of itself. The process is like having a thermostat in a house set so that when the house warms up, it turned on the furnace and warms it up still more.

According to environmental activists and leading scientists, possible effects of global warming are indeed gloomy and need urgent attention from every individual person. They argue that there is not only ample scientific evidence to support the facts about global warming, but also there are fundamental ecological changes presently occurring in our world. In recent memory, humankind has witnessed severe droughts in many regions of the globe and its impact on food security, access to water, hunger, disease and even loss of lives. Heavy downpour of rain in some regions has caused severe flooding, avalanche, and mudslide resulting in destruction of properties and lives. A modest rise in sea level would threaten the very existence of coastal towns globally which are gradually being consumed by water. Hence, oceans are expanding and land is diminishing.

The ability of human systems to adapt to and cope with climate change depends on such factors as wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources and management capabilities. There is a potential adaptability variance within the world communities. The developed nations are more endowed with these attributes and capabilities than the developing nations, particularly the least developed nations that are generally poorest in this regards. As a result, they have less capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to climate change, just as they are more vulnerable to other stresses. In recent memory, the world has witnessed droughts and famine in many developing countries especially sub-Saharan African countries resulting to hunger, starvation, disease and death.

On the contrary, developing nations emit the least amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The EPA reports on its website that total emission of carbon dioxide by the United States alone is more than that of one hundred and fifty developing nations combined, as well as more than Japan, China, India combined. It implies that world’s poorest are paying the bitter price of climate change whereas their contribution to the adverse change is at best minimal. Some environmental activists capitalize on morality and fairness to argue for action to combat global warming.

The Bush Administration’s position on global warming is not only explained by its refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol but also the administration’s 2002 report on global warming. The administration’s 2002 environmental report contradict credible models and statistics on climate change. The report brush out many possible effects of global warming as mere guesswork of environmental extremists The Bush administration argues that implementation of the Kyoto protocol would slow down economic growth and development at home and that developing nations would not be bound by the same greenhouse production obligation as the largest emitters. This argument is contradicted by Matt Bivens, in his article where he argued that the entire energy need of the United States could be provided by wind and solar energy at a lower economic and environmental cost than the current energy sources—coal, oil and, natural gases and also that the united state is largest emitter.

Notwithstanding these facts and arguments, Bevins reports, the energy industry and its lobbyists have employed propaganda machinery to misinform the public about the causes and effects of climate change. A few of the opponents still question whether temperatures have actually been rising at all. Others acknowledged the change but argue that the changes could be because of the natural system and that the proponents of global warming most not overlook the period in climate studies. They also try to discredit climate models that are used to predict future climate. They argue that models are limited to human knowledge of the atmospheric system and therefore cannot be accurate to predict future climate. However, it most be understood that such models are used by metrologies today to forecast weather and they have been precise in forecasting weather. Therefore, climate models cannot be totally disregarded without further studies. Some even suggest that continued warming of the planet could be beneficial to some parts or regions of the world.

In recent years, the United States has been bombarded with several massive natural disasters that could be attributable to climate change. Sid Perkins reports that scientists have concluded from historical records that the total power released by storms had dramatically increased—“more that doubling in the Atlantic in the past 35 years mainly due to rise in water temperature.”

What does this mean for the residents of the United States coastal regions? There could be more powerful and frequent hurricanes resulting in heavy damages, and lose of lives. According to the U.S. Climate Action Report, “The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is the busiest on record and extends the active hurricane cycle that began in 1995—a trend likely to continue for years to come.” The season has most named storms, most hurricanes, most category five storms, and most expensive hurricane on records. It was the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times, the report says. For example, according to the report, Hurricane Katrina has cause a damage of at least eighty billion Dollars and claims the live of at least one thousand and three hundred peoples. That is not all, hurricane Katrina has resulted into one of the largest oil, and hazardous material spill in history, which is expected to cause serious environmental degradation and human effects within the years to come.

From the above, one could safely conclude that global warming is a real threat to our very existence on the earth, if the statistics and sources can be trusted. The alternatives are either to reduce emission or find a way to store green house gases after they are produced into something that would prevent them from polluting the atmosphere. According to Bivens, the technology exists that can collect and store carbon dioxide produced by power plants, factories and other large stationary sources and prevent them from polluting the atmosphere. A transition to renewable energy sources such as nuclear power (though controversial for reasons of safety and high cost waste disposal, releases no carbon dioxide), solar power, wind power and hydrogen fuel cell would greatly reduce green house emission. Another way to reduce emission is by aforestation because the many plants would be effective in breaking up carbon dioxide during photosynthesis, by releasing oxygen into the atmosphere and turning carbon into plant tissue. Since climate issues are global, existing global concerted efforts in mitigating climate change need to be strengthened by further negotiations between all the parties. Individual persons must be reoriented about global warming so they can make informed decisions in its alleviation. Everyone can help reduce greenhouse gas emission when he or she buys an energy efficient appliance, energy efficient car, adding insulation to a house, residing close to work, commutes by public transport.